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UtahEarthquake.com is an independent educational publisher that tracks recent Utah earthquakes using the live public catalog from the U.S. Geological Survey and produces a monthly statewide earthquake forecast. The goal is to make authoritative seismic data easy to read on a map and in plain English without pretending to be an official alerting system.
Every event on the site, and every observation used to train the forecast model, comes from:
Map basemaps are served by Carto’s public tile CDN. No event data on this site originates from proprietary or closed catalogs.
Utah is covered by 806 hexagonal cells at H3 resolution 5 (~252 km² each). For every cell and every calendar month since January 2000, we aggregate magnitude-≥2.5 events from the USGS catalog into a monthly observation. The model is a two-stage hurdle: a logistic regression estimates the probability that a cell will contain at least one qualifying event, and a Poisson regressor estimates the expected count given that at least one happens. Model predictions are blended 70/30 with a long-run empirical prior per cell (Bayesian shrinkage) to keep rare-cell probabilities honest.
The forecast is evaluated with an expanding-window walk-forward backtest over the trailing 24 months, benchmarked against a trailing-12-month Poisson baseline. Reported metrics include log score, RPS, Brier score, 90% prediction-interval coverage, calibration (ECE), and skill versus baseline.
More detail — including the full feature list, reliability diagram, and coverage numbers — lives on the forecast workspace.
The live tracker on the home page refreshes its feed from USGS in near-real time; event appearance may lag slightly behind USGS publication for small or newly reviewed earthquakes. The monthly forecast is regenerated on the first day of each calendar month at 02:00 America/Denver time, using catalog data available up through the preceding month.
For official earthquake preparedness, safety, and response information, refer to the Utah Division of Emergency Management.
If you notice an error on the site — a miscaptioned city, a broken link, a model diagnostic that looks wrong — please email info [at] utahearthquake [dot] com and include the URL and a short description. We will either fix the issue in place or, for model-diagnostics issues, retrain and republish the forecast on the next monthly cycle and acknowledge the correction on this page.
General questions or feedback: info [at] utahearthquake [dot] com.